Here's what I'm thinking for this saturday's UFC 91;
HW- Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar
This was real tough one to pick for me. I have always thought that randy was a little over-rated and I definetly don't think Lesnar deserves a title shot so early in his career, but it is a big money-maker fight, so I understand. If Lesnar wins and Mir beats Nog, that would make a great matchup for next year. Anyway, everyone talks about Randy's experience which is a huge factor, but as it pertains to Lesnar, it's not as big as folks may think. Randy's experience shines brightest when defending the takedown, but he only has 2 UFC wins by submission making him strong on submission defense but not so much on submission offense. That is good for Lesnar since his sub d is his weakest point. With Lesnar coming in almost 50 pounds heavier, I just don't see Randy surviving through the initial barrage. I'm thinking either 1st round TKO by Lesnar or 5 round unan for Couture. My bet is Lesnar, round 1, TKO.
LW- Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson
Florian really impressed me with his poise and ability to take hits while avoiding subs in his fight with Huerta. I said then that I wouldn't bet against him anymore, so I won't. He will really be tested by a way more experienced Stevenson (42 fights to 15 fights), but I think he will survive and take it in the 3rd. Florian, Round 3, TKO.
MW- Amir Sadollah vs. Nick catone
Finally, Amir is back. He is probably my favorite fighter from any of the TUF seasons (a close second? Corey Hill) and he showed mad skills in his victories on the show. I don't know much about Catone, but I'm going with Amir and his typical late-fight submission skills. Sadollah, Round 3, Submission (leg).
HW- Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks
This should be a fun fight to watch. 2 top notch JJ guys both fighting at HW, both with good stamina. I am leaning towards Gonzaga since I believe he has the JJ edge. I think it could be the semi-rare HW decision though. Gonzaga, Unan. Decision.
MW- Nate Quarry vs. Demian Maia
Bigtime contrasting styles in this fight. I think we have one of the better MW strikers in Quarry and one of the best MW sub guys in Maia. I like Quarry a lot, but I don't think he will be able to avoid Maia's submission attempts for longer than 2 rounds and let Maia go 4 for 4 in the UFC, all with choke subs (3 ina row is impressive, 4 would be amazing). This will also be Maia's 3rd fight this year as opposed to only the 2nd for Quarry. You gotta like the guys that fight this much. Maia, Round 2, Submission (choke).
WW- Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory
I like both of these guys and Tamdan even comes from the same small upstate NY town as my mom, so I would like to see him win. However, I think Hazelett has the stronger pedegree and also has the experience edge. With a fight this close, I gotta go unan. Hazelett, Unan. Decision.
LW- Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley
A tough fight to pick between 2 guys that both have strong backrounds and both have fair experience. We all know how much of a student of the game Gurgel is from his stint on TUF, but he may meet his match with a very well-educated Riley (in fighting at least). Still, I gotta go Gurgel since I think he will have many more sub attempts en route to a unan. Also, Gurgel makes very few mistakes. Gurgel, Unan. Decision.
LW- Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
This may be the toughest fight for me to call. Stephens has great Muay Thai and Rafael has impressive BJJ. I'm probably wrong on this one, but I gotta go with Stephens because he's gotta know that Dos Anjos will spend the whole time trying to take it to the ground and he will have trained to avoid it. I think he will catch Dos Anjos with a knee or a kick on one of his shoots. Stephens, Round 2, TKO.
LW- Alvin Robinson vs. Mark Bocek
I'm not too interested in this fight (too many LW fights on 1 card for me), but it could be a good one. BJJ vs. Wrestling. Meh, I'll take BJJ. Robinson, Unan. Decision.
WW- Mike Brown vs. Ryan Thomas
I'm kind of hoping that this one makes the air since it has the ingredients to be a real brawl. Brown has all the heart in the world but is injury-prone and Thomas is well-rounded but has the worst nickname ever ("The Tank Engine"???). I have a feeling this will be either a unan or Brown will reinjure himself by pushing too hard and taking too many chances. Thomas, Round 3, TKO (injury).
Well, I'm not reinventing the wheel on this card since I think many people will have most of the same winner's picked, but I think this looks like a really great card from top to bottom anyway. Good luck with your picks folks.
I know that Amir is off the card now, but this was my original post.
