Years ago, a pro wrestling magazine published an article previewing an expected series of matches in the late-80s between strongmen Lex Luger and Nikita Koloff. The writer speculated that early in the bouts, the two grapplers would interlock their fingers and engage in “tests of strength.” While relatively insignificant contests in and of themselves, the thinking went that they would be predictive of the results of the matches. Both men relied on their muscles. Whoever had the stronger muscles early would ultimately prevail.
Of course, the two wrestlers’ physical strength did not actually determine the outcome of their bouts. But flash-forward 20 years to MMA, pro wrestling’s kissing-cousin, where two of a different sort of wrestlers are about to square-off. Randy Couture was a three-time NCAA Division I All-American and three-time Olympic team alternate; Brock Lesnar, a Division I National Champion. For the two combatants, it will not be a test of strength, but a test of takedown ability. The question is: will the winner of the early takedown battles be the winner of the fight?
To answer this query, one needs to look at instances in both men’s MMA careers where they faced competitors with credible wrestling backgrounds. Lesnar’s stint in MMA has been so brief that he has engaged no fellow wrestlers. Couture, on the other hand, has fought several men who fit the bill. In their first match, former Division I wrestler Chuck Liddell could not keep Couture off of him. Couture took Liddell down early and frequently, with relative ease. While he smacked around a befuddled Liddell standing, he did the most damage (and finished the fight) with ground and pound. Versus junior college All-American-turned-Division I wrestler Tito Ortiz, Couture dominated the wrestling for the entire contest. It was the same story against Division I National Champion Mike Van Arsdale, who Couture outwrestled early until securing a third round choke.
The one exception to this trend was Couture’s bout with Ricco Rodriguez. Rodriguez was an accomplished wrestler in the state of New York in high school. Couture slammed and battered him for two-and-a-half rounds before Rodriguez came back and repeatedly took down and elbowed Couture en route to a fifth round stoppage. Still, this example has to be considered an outlier. In his comeback, Rodriguez displayed as much heart and grit as almost anyone in MMA history. Most fighters would not have been capable of rebounding to score a victory after sustaining such an assault.
What about the fights where Couture lost the early takedown struggles? In his rematch and rubber match with Liddell, it meant imminent defeat: Liddell dismissed Couture in one round in the former and two rounds in the latter. However, against two-time Division I National Champion Kevin Randleman, Couture found himself losing the takedown battle in the first two rounds. But in the third, he wrestled Randleman down and finished him.
What does this all tell us about Saturday’s fight? If Couture outwrestles Lesnar early, the odds swing decisively in his favor. Against other fighters with wrestling backgrounds whom he took down quickly, Couture has been victorious in every outing but one, and in that one versus Rodriguez, his opponent not only possessed a level of jiu-jitsu skill Lesnar does not (Rodriguez was a world class submission grappler), but also staged one of the great comebacks in UFC history. While Lesnar is doubtlessly mentally tough, he has never before been on his back in a fight with strikes raining down upon him. He may have trained for such situations, but experiencing something for the first time in a live fight is a lot different than encountering it in the gym.
What if Lesnar outwrestles Couture early? With his long arms and punching power (as evidenced by his dropping Frank Mir and somersaulting Heath Herring with his fists), he might be able to employ a sprawl and brawl strategy like the one Liddell followed. But temperamentally, it appears that if Lesnar can dictate where the fight happens, he prefers taking his opponent down. It made sense for him to avoid Heath Herring’s dangerous flying knees and kicks that had felled wrestlers like Tom Erickson and Mark Kerr previously, but Frank Mir and Min Soo Kim (Lesnar’s first foe, an Olympic judo silver medalist) only had chances of winning if Lesnar took them down and allowed them the opportunity to work for submissions. Yet he brought them to the ground anyway. One expects that if he can, he will do the same to Couture.
In such a scenario, maybe Lesnar can overwhelm Couture with strikes from a top position; while Couture survived on his back against Randleman, Randleman’s passive ground attack is very different from Lesnar’s. However, while Couture can be knocked out with singular, concussive blows, he has demonstrated resiliency in the face of a prolonged beating: Pedro Rizzo rocked and dropped him in their dramatic first bout without Couture mentally quitting. Perhaps the strength required to grapple with a bigger man will gas out Couture, as it may have done to him against Rodriguez. But in his matches last year with the significantly larger Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga, Couture’s endurance did not seem to be a factor. Maybe the year off at his age (45) will sap him of some of his stamina, though it seems like a bigger question mark is how well Lesnar reacts to being taken into deep waters. He has only been fifteen minutes once, with zero minutes logged against this caliber of opponent. Even if he wins the early portions of the bout, can Lesnar sustain his offense late?
Judging Couture by his past fights, we know he can absorb damage and keep fighting into the championship rounds of a bout. Judging Lesnar by his past fights, we have no idea how much punishment he can take, nor if he can fight tough for twenty-five minutes against a top heavyweight.
If Couture wins the initial takedown battles, it is his fight to lose. If Lesnar wins them, it is still anyone’s game. Advantage Couture.
