Cardio Freak is back with a preview of UFC 91. Who will win the big bout between Lesnar vs. Couture? Will the fight live up to the hype? Does anyone care about the undercard? Plus a very late review of WEC 36, a look at the release of Werdum, and new fights in Japan. All that plus the latest news in MMA. It's younger than Randy Couture, it's Cardio Freak on 411.
UFC 91: "This deserves to be named after the main event since the main event is Couture vs. Lesnar" Preview
Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar.
Did you ever think you would be saying that one year ago? Randy Couture had just resigned from the company as the Heavyweight champion while Brock Lesnar had yet to compete in the Octagon. A lot can change in one year. Randy Couture is now back as not only Captain America and one of the most beloved fighters ever but as the savior of the Heavyweight division. Brock Lesnar is 1-1 in the UFC but has dominated 16:20 of 16:30 minutes of action.
Everyone knows the storylines heading into this fight. Couture is older but experienced, Lesnar is younger but inexperienced. Couture is slower but smarter, Lesnar is faster and stronger. Couture hasn't fought in over a year, Lesnar has fought twice this year. The only storyline missing is Lesnar coming to the Octagon using a walker as a way to mock Couture. That may top Lesnar's mariachi dancing in the midst of his feud with Eddie Guerrero.
While most figure the fight will take place on the ground, every fight has to start on the feet. Unless you take Rich Franklin's advice and start out on your knees. In both of his UFC fights, Lesnar has knocked down his opponents but he's done so, not with technique, but with more of a surprise that he threw a punch. Couture isn't known for his power but he knocked down Tim Sylvia and staggered Gabriel Gonzaga in his past two fights. Lesnar's striking is still very green. He hits with power but there's no real technique there. He looks flat on his feet and really only throws a right down the middle that throws off opponents more than anything. Couture's striking is almost the exact opposite. He uses a lot of head movement, is light on his feet, and puts together combinations. People think Couture has a weak chin because of his losses to Liddell but those some people fail to realize that those are his only two KO losses. It's not like he gets dropped in most of his fights or just isn't good on the feet. He got caught twice by Chuck friggin' Liddell. Lesnar's chin hasn't been tested but just looking at him, he looks like he can take a punch. If the fight stays on the feet, I don't think either many will score a knockout but I do think Couture will school Lesnar with superior technique and movement.
Everyone knows the wrestling credentials of both men. Lesnar is explosive and powerful with his double leg takedowns, Couture is smart and technical with his Greco roman style. Couture's style consists of getting inside, clinching, bullying people against the cage and in the clinch, and then getting a trip takedown. You know it's coming and yet it has worked brilliantly in fights against Liddell, Ortiz, Sylvia, Gonzaga, ect…. As Rogan and Goldberg love to state over and over again, "Randy Couture loves to bully people in the clinch and take their heart." And while it sounds cliché, it's true. A man the size and age of Couture shouldn't be able to bully people the way he does and when he does, his opponents grow frustrated. Lesnar seems like the type of person who would grow frustrated if Couture is able to bully him like he's done so many times in the past. He's got to try and control that frustration though and shake it off between rounds. If he can do that then he'll stay in the fight. If his heart is taken by Couture, the fight will be taken from his as well.
Lesnar's advantages lie in his power, size, and strength. Lesnar had a great quote at the UFC 91 Conference Call where he said, "speed + mass = destruction" and if any math equation sums up Brock Lesnar, that would be the one. He's proven that he hits hard, we know that he can takedown anyone, and on the ground his control combined with his power is amazing. Lesnar is a guy that shouldn't be bullied around. It almost seems unimaginable that someone like Brock Lesnar wouldn't be the bully.
The goal of each fighter will be to put their opponent on their back. Couture hasn't spent a lot of his fighting career on his back but when he's been grounded, he hasn't fared too well. As a former pro wrestler, on his back is the last place Lesnar wanted to be. It's not a stretch to say this but whoever is on their back the longest, will lose this fight. While both men are versed in submissions, neither man would be considered an expert off their back.
This is being hyped as the biggest fight in UFC history. While it doesn't feel as big as Liddell vs. Ortiz 2, it's still a huge fight. A lot of people wonder if the fight will live up to the potential. The Super Bowl is hyped as the biggest football game of the year and sometimes it's over at halftime. That's what's so great about MMA. The fight is never over. And more goes into a fight than a score. Great fights are made thanks to emotion, storylines, fighters, and the crowd. Randy Couture vs. Tim Sylvia wasn't that great of a fight. It was a 25-minute ass kicking where, outside of the first 30 seconds, neither man was close to finishing. Yet everyone remembers the fight because of the emotion, storyline, fighters, and crowd. This fight is the young, hungry, and beast of a man named Brock Lesnar against the old, experienced, beloved Randy Couture for the UFC Heavyweight title. Barring some fluke ending (ex. Cote vs. Silva) this fight will live up to the hype. Whether it's a 30 second knockout, a tentative fight with a great ending, or a 25-minute fight that most may consider boring. It will live up to the hype.
If anyone believes 100% that one fighter will win, they're lying. No one knows who's going to win this fight for 100% certainty. So many things could happen in this fight and I'm not sure anything would shock me. I guess the most shocking ending would be a submission (not via strikes) victory for either fighter but then again, this is a Randy Couture fight and nothing in his fights surprise me.
If I've learned one thing from my years of watching MMA, it's to never bet against Randy Couture. He's only lost one fight when he was the betting underdog and as of this writing, he's a +105 underdog to Lesnar's -145 and I should note that the line has changed three times since Monday, with Couture becoming a bigger underdog each time. By the time the event starts, Couture will likely be a much bigger underdog and if you're planning on putting money on Couture, wait until the last second. I'm picking Randy Couture to win this fight because I can't bet against him. I've been driving the Brock bandwagon since day one but I can't pick against Couture. Randy Couture, Unanimous Decision.
In the co-main event, Joe Silva decides to go with some wacky match making as Kenny Florian takes on Joe Stevenson. I say this is wacky match making because this should have been Florian vs. Tyson Griffin, where the winner gets a shot at BJ Penn. Instead, Sean Sherk defeated Griffin and if Stevenson defeats Florian, well, is anyone paying for a BJ Penn rematch? I think Penn vs. Sherk 2 is a fine fight but I don't know how many other people are buying it.
Anyway, in the biggest co-main event that no one is paying for, Kenny Florian tries to a secure a Lightweight title shot. Here's what you need to know about Florian: he wins. He's lost two fights in the UFC, both of them against guys who could fight at Welterweight. He improves every fight and he finds a way to win. His striking is very technical, his wrestling is mediocre but it's good enough to get by, and his grappling his top notch. On the opposite side of the cage is Joe Stevenson, who is a solid fighter with well-rounded skills. Plus he has a finishing move, that I have dubbed the "Daddy Choke" because when he locks it in, Joe Stevenson becomes your daddy.
Stevenson has more power on the feet but Florian is the better overall striker and he's better in the clinch. Stevenson is bigger and stronger so he might be able to bully Florian and put him on his back for 15-minutes and avoid submissions. Joe Stevenson was just awarded his black belt in jiu-jitsu but I still think Florian is better on the ground. Stevenson has the Daddy Choke and any opponent of his has to look out for that because he goes for the choke in any and all circumstances.
We've got to officially call this a "Tila Tequila Fight" because if Florian wins, he'll get a title shot and I always believe that it should go both ways. I'd love to see Stevenson win just to teach Joe Silva another booking lesson but I don't think that's going to happen. Kenny Florian just finds ways to win and I think he'll find a way to win this fight.
In a fight that I'm really looking forward to, Demian Maia takes on Nate Quarry. While this almost looks like punishment for Quarry, I think UFC is throwing Quarry a bone after the fight he had against Kalib Starnes at UFC 83. Maia is an exciting fighter and a win pushes Quarry to the top of the ladder while a loss doesn't do too much damage him. Maia is one of the guys who I think has the skills to beat Anderson Silva. His striking is improving, his wrestling is good enough to survive, and his jiu-jitsu is second to none. Quarry is decent fighter but I've never really been impressed with him. He's a powerful striking but it's not really technical and everything else about him is just average. If he can keep the fight on the feet then he can win the fight either with a KO or decision but I think Maia finds a way to get the fight to the ground (possibly pulling guard) and tapping out Quarry.
Gabriel Gonzaga takes on UFC newcomer Josh Hendricks in a fight designed to keep Gonzaga on the right track back to a title shot. Josh Hendricks is a guy that hits hard and has a good top game. That's really all I know about him. As for Gonzaga, I know that he's a well-rounded fighter who loses his heart if he doesn't win in the first round. I think Gonzaga is still a threat at Heavyweight despite the losses to Couture and Werdum. Unless Gonzaga shows up 20 pounds heavier and takes Hendricks lightly, he should win. That means put money down on Hendricks.
Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory has been added to the main card due to Amir Saddollah pulling out of his fight against Nick Catone with a leg infection. Best of luck to Amir in his recovery. I'm excited that Dustin Hazelett is on the main card though as he's another fighter whose bandwagon I've been driving for some time now. He's a well-rounded fighter with exciting skills and has the potential to be a champion one day. McCrory is another well-rounded fighter and this should make for an exciting fight. Both guys can bring it on the feet and on the ground. I think Hazelett is the better fighter and I have no intentions of jumping off the bandwagon now. Hazelett will win this fight by submission.
It's a mediocre undercard but it's a huge main event. Sometimes the undercard can influence whether or not you buy an event but this is an event that you're either buying or you're not. Maia vs. Quarry isn't going to stop you from purchasing this PPV because if you don't think "I've got to see that" the moment you hear "Lesnar vs. Couture", chances are you weren't that enthused about the event. It's going to be a historic night this Saturday and I can't wait.
As usual, check out the Roundtable for my official picks on the fights.
